Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
US Durable Goods Shipments MoM, Jun 2026
First-print month-over-month percent growth in U.S. Census Bureau M3 Manufacturers' Value of Shipments: Durable Goods (AMDMVS), seasonally adjusted, for June 2026.
current forecast · 80% CI+0.6%
-0.2%+0.6%+1.4%
history:2026-05 m/m from AMDMVS levels: +1.0%2026-04 m/m from AMDMVS levels: +0.7%2026-03 m/m from AMDMVS levels: +0.8%2026-02 m/m from AMDMVS levels: +1.6%2026-05 AMDMVS level, millions USD SA: +328030.0%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% intervalactual
thesis.analyst · 2026-07-26T01:03:07Z
resolved outcomeinside 80% interval
- actual
- +0.7%
- forecast
- +0.6% with 80% CI [-0.2%, +1.4%]
- error
- +0.1% · absolute +0.1%
- cdf score
- CRPS 0.18 · PIT 0.55
- source
- census_m3 Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders
First print for 2026-06 captured from https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/graph/alfredgraph.csv?id=AMDMVS&vintage_date=2026-07-27 on the official release date named by the cell's resolver.
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- July 26, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- census.m3.durable_goods_shipments_mom.2026_06.first_print
Key drivers
- Recent AMDMVS shipments momentum was positive through May 2026
- Durable-goods shipments are volatile but less aircraft-order-driven than new orders
- Mean reversion from unusually firm early-2026 monthly gains
- First-print target uses seasonally adjusted AMDMVS levels and excludes later revisions
Resolution
- source
- U.S. Census Bureau M3 Advance Report, mirrored in ALFRED/FRED series AMDMVS
- resolved
- July 27, 2026
- actual
- +0.7%
- rule
- Use the first official June 2026 print released with the Census M3 Advance Report on Durable Goods at 8:30 a.m. on 2026-07-27. Resolve as 100*(June 2026 seasonally adjusted AMDMVS level minus May 2026 seasonally adjusted AMDMVS level)/(May 2026 seasonally adjusted AMDMVS level), in percent, using the first-print June 2026 vintage for both June and May levels; later revisions do not change resolution. The ledger sourceBinding points to AMDMVS with a multiply transform even though the target unit is percent_growth, so the forecast is tied to the same target and interprets the target as the month-over-month percent growth implied by AMDMVS levels.
- Data point
- census.m3.durable_goods_shipments_mom.2026_06.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
§
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: calculatorhidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.