Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Colorado Medicaid caseload, August 2026
What will Colorado HCPF report as the first-print statewide Health First Colorado Medicaid total caseload for August 2026 in the Medical Premiums Expenditure and Caseload Report, not including CHP+?
current forecast · 80% CI1.25m
1.23m1.25m1.27m
history:latest Jan 2026 HCPF TOTAL, thousands: 1.24mDec 2025 HCPF TOTAL, thousands: 1.23mNov 2025 HCPF TOTAL, thousands: 1.22mAug 2025 HCPF TOTAL, thousands: 1.24mJan 2025 HCPF TOTAL, thousands: 1.21m
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-07-23T03:03:37Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- July 23, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- co.hcpf.medicaid.total_caseload.2026-08.first_print
Key drivers
- January 2026 HCPF level already near August 2025 level
- post-unwind Medicaid attrition has largely stabilized
- new fiscal-year and renewal timing can create small summer gains
- November 2025 reporting dip reversed by January 2026
- major federal Medicaid policy effects are mostly later than August 2026
Resolution
- source
- Colorado HCPF Premiums, Expenditures and Caseload Reports
- expected
- September 15, 2026
- rule
- Resolve to the first HCPF FY 2026-27 Medical Premiums Expenditure and Caseload Report entry for August 2026, using the statewide Health First Colorado Medicaid TOTAL caseload row in whole members, converted to thousands. Use the first posted print available for the August activity report dated September 2026 and ignore later restatements or revised monthly reports. If HCPF publishes both PDF and XLS for the same first print, use the XLS/PDF value for the same TOTAL row; if they disagree on the first posting, use the PDF report value as the citable released table.
- Data point
- co.hcpf.medicaid.total_caseload.2026-08.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.